China Stock Market Up 50% in a Year
Published: May 12, 2006
SHANGHAI, May 11 — After sinking to an eight-year low last year and being declared all but dead by seasoned market watchers, the Chinese stock market has recently soared to a level more than 50 percent higher than a year ago.
The powerful rally is the longest sustained rise in share prices here in more than five years, and it is offering a glimmer of hope to investors who were crushed by a long-standing bear market that somehow existed in the midst of the world's fastest-growing economy.
Market analysts say share prices in China are being swept up with other Asian financial markets because of huge inflows of cash into the region. Moreover, Asia's huge trade surpluses with the West are believed to be flooding into financial markets here.
The Nikkei average in Tokyo is up 52 percent over the last year, and the South Korean stock index is up 55 percent.
Share prices in Australia have risen 31 percent over the same period. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong is up 22 percent. And in India, some stock indexes have soared over 95 percent.
Even shares in Pakistan, the Philippines and Vietnam are soaring.
But the most surprising jump has come in China, where share prices had fallen by as much as 55 percent from their highs in 2001, despite the country's sizzling economic growth.
"We're awash in liquidity," says Jing Ulrich, chairman of China equities at J. P. Morgan. "Since I started covering China in the early 1990's, I've never seen this level of interest."
Now, some market analysts say the rally could encourage a wave of mergers and acquisitions in China and also set the stage for more important changes to China's primitive capital markets.
Regulators announced here Monday that they would end a yearlong moratorium on new stock listings on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, where over 1,400 state-owned companies are listed.
And while many analysts cautioned this week that stock prices here could sink again, several experts said there were signs the market could rise even more.
"In China, bank deposits equal 160 percent of G.D.P.," says Ms. Ulrich at J. P. Morgan.
"That's $3.6 trillion in the bank," she added. "Imagine if there was an equity culture here and investors put just 1 percent of that money into the stock market."
That would require a startling turnaround in attitudes among investors who have long held suspicions that listed companies engage in insider trading, cook the books or fabricate financial statements.
The plunging market has been devastating for millions of Chinese investors, some of whom plowed their life savings into a market created only in the late 1980's. Some small investors have been furious with the government as their savings evaporated. One man protested by dousing himself with gasoline and setting himself on fire outside the offices of regulators in Beijing.
The Chinese government has moved aggressively in recent years to restore confidence in the market.
It has introduced dozens of changes meant to support prices, including allowing more foreign money to come into the stock market and announcing new financial reporting standards.
Market sentiment has been so bearish over the last few years that even the country's major banks have turned to Hong Kong to list their shares.
Analysts say this crippled the capital markets and made it more difficult for state-owned companies to borrow, forcing them to turn to the state-owned banks.
"Last year 99 percent of the financing came from banks and one percent from stocks and bonds, and that is a very unhealthy way of financing," said Michael Pettis, an associate professor of finance at Beijing University.
Still, some analysts insist that China's stock market was overvalued even when it hit rock bottom last year.
But financial experts say the more serious problem is that the market needs structural reforms to lure a wider base of investors, attracting more long-term investors and fewer speculators.
Foreign investors are being allowed to invest more and more in the Chinese stock market. And that may have helped lure Chinese investors back in for the current rally.
"I think there's still a lot of Chinese sitting on the sidelines waiting to jump in," says Chang Chun, a professor at the China Europe International Business School in Shanghai. "But that could also create another bubble."
Mr. Pettis at Beijing University said he believed that the present rally was mostly speculative. Until significant structural changes occur, he predicted, speculators will drive the Chinese market.
"We've seen this before," he said, noting that the Japanese stock market rallied consistently after it began its steep decline at the end of the 1980's, only to fall even more sharply the next time around. "If this turns out to be a false rally," he said, "This wouldn't be the first time."
在去年跌入8年来的最低点后，已被市场观察家宣布死亡的中国股市，近来跳空高开涨势如虹，已比一年前上涨了50%。纽约时报说，中国股市所出现的过去5多年来最长的强劲涨势，正在给那些被长期熊市所摧残的投资者带来一缕微弱的希望之光。
5月12日出版的纽约时报发表文章，介绍说近来强势上涨的中国股市，尤其是沪股已在五一节后涨至近两年来的新高，达到1500点。市场分析师指出，由于巨大现金流入，中国股票正在横扫亚洲其它金融市场。此外，亚洲国家与西方国家的巨大贸易赢余也被认为正在流入中国的金融市场。
去年，日经指数上涨了52%，韩国股市上涨了55%。同一时期，澳大利亚股票也上涨了31%，香港恒生综合指数上涨了22%。而印度的一些股票指数已上涨了95%，甚至巴基斯坦、菲律宾和越南的股市也正在大幅上涨。
纽约时报说，然而亚洲金融市场所出现的最令惊讶的跳跃，已经出现在中国。尽管中国的经济出现高速持久的增长，但中国股市自2001年以来却已下跌了55%。摩根大通中国证券市场部主席李晶(Jing Ulrich)说，自从她九十年代早期开始负责中国地区后，“我从来没有见这个有趣的水平。”
现在，一些市场分析师认为，中国股市近来的大幅上涨可能会引发新一轮兼并浪潮，同时也会给中国的原始资金市场带来一些重要的改变。但也有许多分析师警告，中国股票可能会再次出现跌势。与此同时，还有一些专家指出，有迹象显示，中国的股市可能会出现更大的涨幅。
摩根大通中国证券市场部主席李晶指出，中国的银行存款相当于GDP的160%，也就是说有3.6万亿美元存在银行，她说，“可以设想一下，如果这里出现一种公平的文化，投资者只把1%的存款投入股票市场。”但对于长期以来一直对中国上市公司持怀疑态度的投资者来说，这样做可能需要一个令人惊愕的观念转变，因为这些上市公司存在着内部交易或伪造财政报告等诸多问题。
纽约时报说，中国的股市已经摧毁了成百上千万中国股民，仅在上个世纪八十年代后期，就有许多人把一生的积蓄都贩进刚刚创建的中国股市。在他们的积蓄从股市蒸发后，一些小投资者一直对政府感到不满和愤怒，其中有人在北京有关管理部门外进行抗议，把汽油浇在身上，然后引火自焚。为此，中国政府近几年来已采取一系列措施，重塑投资者对股市的信心。
但过去几年，中国股市的市场情绪却是如此的“熊市”，甚至几大国有银行都已纷纷转到香港上市。分析师说，中国瘸腿的资本市场，已使一些想从市场上借款的国有公司变得更加困难，从而迫使它们只能转向国家银行。
虽然中国股市已在去年年末触底反弹，并在近期出现几年来少见的大幅上涨，但一些分析师仍坚持认为，中国的股票市场需要一次彻底的大修。一些金融专家指出，更严重的问题则是，为了吸引更多的投资者，中国股市需要进行结构改革，以此来吸引更多的长期投资者和更多的市场投机者。
五一节后，中国A股一举将近两年新高，升至1500点。英国金融时报的文章说，这只是前期行情的延续，自去年12月起，在风雨中飘摇了近五年的中国A股，终于迈出了久违的牛步，在各路资金的推动下，一路攻城拔寨。
过去五年，绝对是中国A股“失去的五年”。自2001年6月14日，上证综指摸高2245.43点后，中国股市一路下滑，并在去年6月触底998.23点。而值得讽刺的是，从2001年开始，中国经济进入了新一轮上升周期，2001－2005四年间GDP分别增长7.3%、8.3%、9.3%、9.5%和9.9%，而对应的上海A股综合指数的回报率是－20.62%、－17.52%、－10.27%、－15.4%和－8.20%。
文章认为，与以往的反弹不同，中国股市这轮上涨，是建立在证券市场走向完善、健康的基础之上，而不是靠以前的政策“兴奋剂”刺激。股改、证券法的修订、机构投资者的培育、上市公司质量的提高、中介机构监管的加强等政策的陆续出台，使中国股市制度架构日臻完善，尤其是以股权分置改革的全面启动，困扰中国股票市场15年之久的根本性制度缺陷终于划上句号。
股市演绎的财富效应，也使投资者逐渐挥去“熊市”的阴影。这从沪深两市A股新增开户数可以看出，据有关统计数据显示，截至3月底，投资者开户总数达到7382.86万户，同比增加140万户，比2月份增加21.86万户，其中一般机构A股账户开户数新增1036户，比2月份增长22.7%。
不过值得警惕的是，中国股市这轮的回升是伴随着汇率和房市一起在上涨，日本上世纪八十年代“泡沫幽灵”似乎正在中国徘徊，虽然中国股市的这轮牛市，还未达到泡沫的地步，但是其下一步的走势，管理层必须慎之以待，尤其是在完善证券市场各项制度建设的同时，要警惕银行资金和国外短期资本的流入。
新华社5月9日以《中国股市踏破千五关口，新一轮牛市基本确立》为题的报导指出，上证综指一举突破1500点，这是自2004年6月8日中国股市跌穿1500点后首次突破此关口。中央财经大学证券期货研究所所长贺强说：“中国证券市场上新一轮的牛市行情已基本确立。”
近年来，在中国宏观经济持续稳定增长的同时，中国股市却一直处于低迷状态。2004年6月8日，上证综指跌穿1500点关口，破位下行。此后一年的6月6日，上证指数更跌至998.23点，“熊”态尽显。贺强认为，作为中国股市整个大盘的中轴线，1500点不仅是心理关口，更是实际的技术关口。“1500点上方若能站稳的话，还会引发更大的行情。”贺强说。
就在5月8日，中国证监会发布的再融资新规《上市公司证券发行管理办法》正式实施，这意味着暂别中国股市一年之久的上市公司再融资正式启动。作为一个新兴加转轨的证券市场，中国股市历来对新股发行(股市扩容)抱有排斥心态。然而这一本是利空的消息却成了5月8日股市上扬的导火索。当天，股市沪指开盘于1446.99点，全天上涨56.8点，以逼近1500点整数关口的1497.1点报收。
报导指出，自2005年4月29日启动股改至今，中国股市便开始发生时而波澜壮阔、时而润物无声的深刻变化，在股改营造稳定市场氛围的同时，更为制度建设打下了坚实基础。截至2006年4月24日，沪深两市已完成或进入股改程序的上市公司共868家，占应改革公司的65%，对应市值占比为70%，对应的股本占比为67%。迄今，含有B股、H股、ADR等各类上市公司股改，均已破题。
光大证券研究所的一份策略分析报告认为，股权分置问题解决后，影响A股估值水平的一些非市场因素正在逐渐消失。分析人士认为，从基本面看，随着股改的顺利进行，制约市场发展的制度性缺陷正在消除，而国家宏观经济的稳健快速发展、周边市场的牛市氛围等等，都为A股市场进入牛市阶段提供了充分的基本面支持。同时，资金面的状况也显示，充沛的新增资金将有力地支持一轮牛市的展开。
No comment now.